2011 Market Predictions
Year five and as always, these are in no particular order.
1. Europe will be the top performing developed market, VGK will be the best way to play this rocket.
2. Large Cap US will out perform Small and Mid Cap. Buy SPY, sell MDY and IWM.
3. U.S. Dollar will have a very bad year, UUP will be down 10 percent.
4. Federal Reserve successfully raises inflation expectations but goes to far, WIP and TIP will be bond top performers.
5. Consumer will continue to payoff negative savings from the past decade, avoid retail sector, #1 loser.
6. Interest rates rise and bonds produced negative returns except for cash, WIP and TIP.
7. Muni market nightmare explodes into the mainstream with 10 major defaults or bankruptcies.
8. Equity markets rally through the first quarter, lose steam in spring, tank during the summer with a mild rebound in the fall.
9. XLE, XLB and IYR will be the top performing sectors producing positive returns.
10. BRIC countries will be top performing emerging markets led by China, FXI!
Bonus prediction!!!
The whole 12-21-2012 Mayan Calendar end of the world thing moves into the mainstream media, making Y2K fiasco look minor. It will start impacting consumer, business and government activities and the price of gold which hits $2,150 per oz.
1. Europe will be the top performing developed market, VGK will be the best way to play this rocket.
2. Large Cap US will out perform Small and Mid Cap. Buy SPY, sell MDY and IWM.
3. U.S. Dollar will have a very bad year, UUP will be down 10 percent.
4. Federal Reserve successfully raises inflation expectations but goes to far, WIP and TIP will be bond top performers.
5. Consumer will continue to payoff negative savings from the past decade, avoid retail sector, #1 loser.
6. Interest rates rise and bonds produced negative returns except for cash, WIP and TIP.
7. Muni market nightmare explodes into the mainstream with 10 major defaults or bankruptcies.
8. Equity markets rally through the first quarter, lose steam in spring, tank during the summer with a mild rebound in the fall.
9. XLE, XLB and IYR will be the top performing sectors producing positive returns.
10. BRIC countries will be top performing emerging markets led by China, FXI!
Bonus prediction!!!
The whole 12-21-2012 Mayan Calendar end of the world thing moves into the mainstream media, making Y2K fiasco look minor. It will start impacting consumer, business and government activities and the price of gold which hits $2,150 per oz.

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