First let me say I think CSCO is a fine company with excellent management and I have no problem putting client assets in this company.  Clients were fortunate that I sold their positions on election day as I cut investment risk avoiding the nearly 20 percent decline.  So where is CSCO now?  Does it represent a safe and potentially lucrative investment?  I ran three charts, one year, five years and 10 years. 

First the one year chart compared to the QQQQ and SPY.  In this chart CSCO exhibits lots of value!



Five year Chart



Five years demonstrates that CSCO has been a market leader over the period.  Will it resume its leadership or has it grown so much it will be a market performer from here on?

10 years



Well if you look over the last 10 years the 2001 tech bubble still dominates the chart but argues that CSCO is more a market follower than leader.

Like a said, probably one of the best run, most responsible companies in the market today but it from a price performance perspective its has been lagging.  While CSCO is always changing and improving its products, the market for its products is changing faster, becoming more efficient requiring less capital equipment. 

Declining government sales is going to be a large headwind for CSCO and other Tech companies for the next several years.  My target price is between $13-15 per share or a much fatter dividend than I or the street suspects.