How did I do in 2009?

Well let us see how I did!

1. We are almost half way through the economic contraction as measured by GDP.  Third quarter 2009 will be the first positive one, but will be very weak.
   
   If you think about it there are two predictions here, which quarter and magnitude.  Both were dead-on BULLS-EYE. 
   
   
2. Consumers will discover that non-consumption is a good thing and will start demanding higher quality products.  A notion will be put forth that most of the planets environmental problems are caused by the disposable society.  This recession will be credited with saving the planet by changing consumerism forever. 
   
   This one did not pan out as I envisioned, but in the next few years I believe you will see this work out to be one of the best predictions. 
   
   
3. Ford will be the only major US auto manufacture remaining at the end of 2009.  GM and Chrysler will be so radically changed it would be hard to describe or compare them to what they are now or were in the past.
   
   Dead-on BULLS-EYE!
   
   
4. SELL US Treasuries and sell duration unless they are Treasury Inflation Protected Securities which you should keep.  Interest rates are going to rise and spreads will narrow a bit.  Short duration corporate bonds will be the sweet spot in the fixed income markets.
   
   Out of TLT, IEF, SHY and TIP the first sentence was perfect!  Interest rates did rise and spreads narrowed a lot!. Short Corporate bonds were the sweet spot.  All in there were four predictions in this one and three were BULLS-EYE and one off in magnitude but right in directions.
   
   
5. Chairman Bernanke will print as much money as possible and be very accommodative with the new administration in order to keep his job.  Sell dollars and buy a portfolio of other currencies Friday, January 2.  Move back into the dollar late in the fall of 2009.
   
   Rarely do I get the politics as right as I did on this one, but there are two market predictions in this expectation:  Sell dollars 1/2/09 (BULLS-EYE)  move back into dollar late fall, (BULLS-EYE)
   
   
6. Jobs will continue to be lost.  Some talking heads are noting that the initial claims are running up to the 80-81 record levels.  The US population is 50 percent larger than it was in 1981 so it would not surprise me to see several, million job lost months in the very near future. 
   
   Jobs continued to be lost BULLS-EYE but never did achieve a million job month in losses. 
   
   
7. China and India will lead the world out of this recession as they start building out their domestic infrastructure and develop their middle classes.  Southeast Asia will be the top performing region in the world in 2009. 
   
   It is hard to say the first two points are wrong but you cannot really call them bulls-eyes either.  Pretty certain Latin America as a region outperformed S.E. Asia.
   
   
8. I do not think peace will break-out all over the world and in fact this global economic contraction is only exacerbating many of the regional conflicts.  These conflicts will start changing US policies and President Obama will implement  a national self-sufficiency program for energy and food.   Pakistan is the powder keg and there are multiple fuses running in many directions. 
   
   No real market predictions in this mess, but the response in #2 is appropriate here as well.
   
   
9. Energy and Commodities will be the best performing sectors for 2009, but financials will make a major recovery at the end of the year.
   
   XLK is the top performer so far followed closely by XLY and XLB.  Energy actually has underperformed the SPY.  XLF recovered before I expected but the magnitude was a little short.  I almost want to call this a bulls-eye, it is only 95% right.
   
   
10. 2009 will be a year of conflict, false starts and significant changes in behavior.  Returns will be below historical norms but the foundation for a better 2010 and 2011 will be laid. 
    
    The strong market performance in 2009 will lay the foundation for 2010, but since 2009 was exceptional, 2010 will not be.

All in all, not bad predicting.  I added up a total of 24 predictions of which

11 were Bulls-eyes, 8 were accurate, 5 were wrong