Is the Credit Bubble burst?
David Tice of Federated Investors was discussing his call of SP500 at 400 on Bloomberg TV. While I think his arguments are worth listening too, carefully listening too, but that is not what caught my attention this morning. He stated that the credit bubble has burst, but that does not sound right.
Yes, I agree in many aspects it has burst, but I am thinking of all the holder of that credit that will never be paid back. Many of the financial institutions have taken massive write-offs and the shareholders took those losses on the chin and in the pocketbook, but there is more out there to loose so to speak.
In mid explosion of the credit bubble bursting in true Jessica Alba (Fantastic Four ) fashion, Chairman Bernanke, Secretary Paulson and Secretary Geithner envelopes all those losses and puts them on the Federal Reserves and Treasury's balance sheets. That is a ton of losses to finance into the future. Because the explosion was interrupted, there are no ashes to rebuild from, there is no foundation. We are in suspended time trying to figure out what to do with all the toxic assets transferred to the taxpayers and remain on financial institutions balance sheets.
IMHO It would be difficult to devalue the dollar and push the SP 500 to 400 in the same time sequence. I think Mr. Tice has the direction of the dollar right and if it goes down 50 percent and the SP 500 does not change, its value is effectively cut in half also.
Yes, I agree in many aspects it has burst, but I am thinking of all the holder of that credit that will never be paid back. Many of the financial institutions have taken massive write-offs and the shareholders took those losses on the chin and in the pocketbook, but there is more out there to loose so to speak.
In mid explosion of the credit bubble bursting in true Jessica Alba (Fantastic Four ) fashion, Chairman Bernanke, Secretary Paulson and Secretary Geithner envelopes all those losses and puts them on the Federal Reserves and Treasury's balance sheets. That is a ton of losses to finance into the future. Because the explosion was interrupted, there are no ashes to rebuild from, there is no foundation. We are in suspended time trying to figure out what to do with all the toxic assets transferred to the taxpayers and remain on financial institutions balance sheets.
IMHO It would be difficult to devalue the dollar and push the SP 500 to 400 in the same time sequence. I think Mr. Tice has the direction of the dollar right and if it goes down 50 percent and the SP 500 does not change, its value is effectively cut in half also.

Brad,
Agree, the time sequence for dollar devaluation will most likely not be coupled with Tice's S&P call of 400. Some call for sub-500 on the S&P in 2010, but it could take several years to hit that target and a lot can happen with the $USD in the meantime. Thank you Oligarchs, glad my children's wealth will go to your Hampton mortgage...
Nice blog and posts, hope all is well with you and yours.
-Dave Weston
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