Let me start by saying I use both Facebook and Twitter.  I really enjoy Facebook and I am just beginning to tweet.  Bloomberg TV is covering the Media event in Sun Valley, Idaho and was taking about dinosaurs and their successors. 

Is Facebook really worth $10 Billion?

I was on Myspace at onetime, I am not now.  How hard would it be for Facebook to be replicated?  If Facebook was to upset its customers liked they tried to a few months ago with the privacy policy.  Facebook is one stupid decision away from non-existence and will be replaced as quickly as it came to be.  Not  just Facebook,  twitter and the rest of the new web based services. 

Why do I say this?  Customer loyalty is non-existent and we can change very quickly and easily. 

We are just now starting to experiment with mass media, where the masses create, distribute and consume the media.  How many of you would prefer reading about your high school classmates comedy of errors or a sitcom?  If it is drama, some of your friends are going through it right now with their parents, partners or children. 

We are just starting an exponential growth curve with smart phones and social networking. 

It is my belief that smart phone apps how we consumers relate to them and each other  is the "next big thing" so DON'T bet the farm on Facebook.