Consumer behavior is going to change and change radically in the next 12 months, not just in the US but all developed countries.  There is competition for resources and US consumers have not been required compete in many years.  How we move forward, what institutions and traditions will fall in this new competitive environment?  Have the public policy choices we have made in the past been the optimal ones?  What new public policy choices are we going to make? 

As far as the market goes, that too will be a brave new world!  As consumer behavior changes so will businesses.  I offer two charts this day, the first of hope, a 3 year of the SPY.  The hope?  A bottom is near!



and then this is the "real truth" picture



therefore the truth is the bottom could be quite a bit further down from here.  What reality would that create?  How would that impact our economy?  The market?  Hold your breath, its is going to be a wild ride.  Do you remember that one July where the market dropped 22 percent in the first three weeks, it could be one of those earning seasons.