I am scared

In four hours the Federal Reserve will announce the size of its rate cut, if there is a rate cut at all.  The market is expecting a 50 basis point cut following last weeks 75 basis point cut.  The US House of Representatives passed in unprecedented time a stimulus package and while the Senate is yapping, "we are relevant" I expect they will pass a version of at least $150 billion in stimulus. 

Now why am I scared?  Below is a two month chart of the SPY and you might notice that a couple months ago it was above 150, fell to 125 (20% decline) and we set at 135.  We have cut interest rates 75 basis points, passed a stimulus package and expect another 50 basis point cut today and all we get is a small bump in the SPY?  It is the "all we get is a small bump" that scares me.  The United States government has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the economy and the market barely notices and that is what scares me greatly. 

Unless the European Union steps in and settles the markets, Super Tuesday will be followed by a massive decline in the global market.  I thought 1250 would be a stronger support for the SP 500, now I think the market objective is between 100-111 on the SPY. 



 

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