Looking forward to 2008
I am starting to focus on 2008 and I always start with listing issues of concerns / opportunities. The hardest part of investing is to realize that there is a winner for every loser, for every concern an opportunity.
As long as the energy exporting and emerging economies keep spending building their economies infrastructure, the US will avoid a recession in 2008.
Left-field always comes into play and creates excitement, economic dislocation and immediate re-prioritization of economic resources. I think it will be a earthquake, but a natural event at least is my guess for 2008.
If you have any burning issues that frame your outlook for 2008, please share.
- Inflation: Energy, food, transportation
- Currency: Can the dollar fall another 12%?
- Asia economy and their independence from the US economy
- US Employment - therefore consumer appetite for more new consumption
- Debt capacity: How much more can government, consumers, corporations borrow
- Credit crunch: When will investors trust return to rating agencies, packagers
- US Election: The outcome yes, but the process will be volatile.
- US housing market: the investigation, prosecution of fraudulent market participants will take time and be in the headlines all year
- Oil Supply: Is our supply more or less safe? Shocks? Nigeria, Venezuela, Mid-East, Mexico
- Weather and its economic impact, will it have little or lots?
As long as the energy exporting and emerging economies keep spending building their economies infrastructure, the US will avoid a recession in 2008.
Left-field always comes into play and creates excitement, economic dislocation and immediate re-prioritization of economic resources. I think it will be a earthquake, but a natural event at least is my guess for 2008.
If you have any burning issues that frame your outlook for 2008, please share.

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