Looking forward to 2008

I am starting to focus on 2008 and I always start with listing issues of concerns / opportunities.  The hardest part of investing is to realize that there is a winner for every loser, for every concern an opportunity. 

  • Inflation:  Energy, food, transportation
  • Currency:  Can the dollar fall another 12%?
  • Asia economy and their independence from the US economy
  • US Employment - therefore consumer appetite for more new consumption
  • Debt capacity:  How much more can government, consumers, corporations borrow
  • Credit crunch:  When will investors trust return to rating agencies, packagers
  • US Election:  The outcome yes, but the process will be volatile.
  • US housing market:  the investigation, prosecution of fraudulent market participants will take time and be in the headlines all year
  • Oil Supply:  Is our supply more or less safe?  Shocks?  Nigeria, Venezuela, Mid-East, Mexico
  • Weather and its economic impact, will it have little or lots?
My first impression of 2008 is it will be the tail of two halves.  The first half will be weak as measured by GDP, earnings, employment growth and equity returns.  The second half is a bigger question.  How far along in resolving the credit crunch and deleveraging the system will be the single biggest variable followed by how candidates are going to fix whats wrong, then how well the global economy does as the US digs itself out from this mountain of "sub-prime" debt.
As long as the energy exporting and emerging economies keep spending building their economies infrastructure, the US will avoid a recession in 2008.

Left-field always comes into play and creates excitement, economic dislocation and immediate re-prioritization of economic resources.  I think it will be a earthquake, but a natural event at least is my guess for 2008.

If you have any burning issues that frame your outlook for 2008, please share.


 

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