The Federal Reserve, Dollar and energy
It is a couple days before Thanksgiving so I really hate writing this.
The Federal Reserve minutes will be out in just under 5 hours. The Wall Street Whine is at fever pitch as we watch billions of financial institutions market value evaporate. Freddie and Fannie look really ugly as the market opens in just a few minutes. Citi Group or should we say Goldmans' downgrade of Citi Group to a sell tanked the market yesterday.
The Wall Street Whine is for rate cuts, and rumoring an emergency meeting to get one is going to create an Mexico style devaluation of the United States dollar if they get their way. There are some serious ramifications to toss the dollar overboard to inflate our way out of the housing crisis. Imagine the US T-bill losing its status as the "risk free rate".
First things first, if the value of the dollar fell in half from here what would the price of oil, nay - energy be? Who could afford gasoline, or moving goods or providing services at $7 gas? Businesses would take immediate action to control costs and give revenue up to do so. What would happen to municipal budgets? Tax revenue would be plummeting while costs are exploding and demand for services would more than double. I really wonder if the mega-tropolises could withstand this type of crisis, given the response and recovery of New Orleans.
So what is the point? Energy of course and the more locally it is produced, the better the standard of living of those there will be. Natural gas, solar, hydro, wind, tidal, agricultural will all contribute since importing energy will be out of the question.
Look for utilities with locally produced energy and alternative energy producers. Look for regions in the US with large quantities of naturally occurring locally produced energy. Look outside the US for safe havens. You will find investment winners in these locations.
The Federal Reserve minutes will be out in just under 5 hours. The Wall Street Whine is at fever pitch as we watch billions of financial institutions market value evaporate. Freddie and Fannie look really ugly as the market opens in just a few minutes. Citi Group or should we say Goldmans' downgrade of Citi Group to a sell tanked the market yesterday.
The Wall Street Whine is for rate cuts, and rumoring an emergency meeting to get one is going to create an Mexico style devaluation of the United States dollar if they get their way. There are some serious ramifications to toss the dollar overboard to inflate our way out of the housing crisis. Imagine the US T-bill losing its status as the "risk free rate".
First things first, if the value of the dollar fell in half from here what would the price of oil, nay - energy be? Who could afford gasoline, or moving goods or providing services at $7 gas? Businesses would take immediate action to control costs and give revenue up to do so. What would happen to municipal budgets? Tax revenue would be plummeting while costs are exploding and demand for services would more than double. I really wonder if the mega-tropolises could withstand this type of crisis, given the response and recovery of New Orleans.
So what is the point? Energy of course and the more locally it is produced, the better the standard of living of those there will be. Natural gas, solar, hydro, wind, tidal, agricultural will all contribute since importing energy will be out of the question.
Look for utilities with locally produced energy and alternative energy producers. Look for regions in the US with large quantities of naturally occurring locally produced energy. Look outside the US for safe havens. You will find investment winners in these locations.

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