November 2007

The domestic equity market will perform as normal:  Financial companies lead the market and they are heading south.  I have looked at a number of emerging markets and they are way above 50 and 200 day moving averages.  If you are a long-term investor, the coming 20 percent decline in the emerging markets will not impact your two year return.  If losing 20 percent in the short-term scares you, you should get out of EEM and EPP or any other regional emerging market ETF. 

The Federal Reserves' statement put us on number watch which means volatility will remain high as economic releases come in good and bad.  Employment and inflation will be key drivers in market direction.  Once the mortgage market becomes transparent, lending will come back.  Investors do not trust lenders or rating agencies to accurately reflect the quality of collateral so they are having to build there own in-house resources to evaluate securities and collateral.  You cannot build a research staff overnight so I do not expect any recovery in non-conforming, jumbo mortgage market until next spring.  I would pay close attention to retail sales for indications of the consumers health and their ability to manage $4 gas and $3.50 heating oil this winter.  I stated before my apprehensions for the coming Christmas season, nothing has changed my dim forecast.

Once the market fully reflects the headwinds the US economy is facing and the emerging markets return to reality, there will be a great buying opportunity either this month or the first part of December.
 

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