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Looking at Currency ETF's
This is crazy and relative to the U.S. Dollar.
So I ran a one year chart post whatever seismic event in the Fall of 2008 and see if the lines are as flat as this chart implies.
Pay attention to currencies - it matters in your asset allocation and long-term wealth protection.
Three month look at FXI versus QQQQ, IWM, SPY
because we all know, if the US rebounds, China's growth will accelerate.
China compared to other emerging markets
I was surprised to see ILF take the lead from FXI. I am a bit surprised that both ILF and FXI are doing so much better than EEM and EPP. EPP wants me to investigate who is the drag on return and see if there is an mean reversion opportunity.
I tossed the SPY in just because investors need to see where the growth is.
No mans land
Look out bears, you are going have to share with the lions and tigers oh my! I am looking to visit the 200 day moving average, but look at the last four bottoms, each was preceded by a large red bar, and each is higher than the previous. Just saying risks abound, my inclination is for a decline, but I am prepared to be wrong.
Time to take profits on CREE
But today, I think it is over valued. The 200 day moving average is around $40 and the current price is around $55, roughly a 38 percent premium over the 200 day. The 20 day moving average has rolled over and has a negative slope and the 50 day is approach a slope of 0 very fast.
Save yourself a 27 percent decline in the price, sell today buy in May.
Time to re-write pension law
It is time to take our retirement accounts out of Wall Street.
Pension law has re-allocated investment capital from our local communities and funded the crooks on Wall Street. We are required to give our retirement funds to this system prone to corruption, high fees and poor returns. It is time to realize the securitization of America is a failed experiment and we must restructure the capital of America. We have seen capital move from the local bank, to money market funds, to high frequency day trading in equities, to the most irresponsible leveraged hedge funds gambling our future, and we are all poorer for it.
Public Pension funds used to make investments in their communities, earning a return for the participants and building their local economy. I know in Alaska, very little of the $17 billion PERS/TERS, $10 billion plus CBR or the big Kahuna $35 billion Alaska Permanent Fund is invested in the local economy. As the Trustees chase returns in hottest markets overseas or the newest, never fail formula from Wall Street, local communities starve for investment capital. Only those who can attract the attention of Wall Street have access to capital, "to small to start".
I wonder just how many IRA's or 401ks are invested in local businesses or real estate?
We must remove the legal impediments to investing our retirement savings in our local economy by expanding local investment alternatives for individual retirement accounts, 401K's and the like. Why should the retirement investor be denied the opportunity to invest in the local community on a tax advantaged basis? We need to encourage the large public funds to start investing in our communities and local businesses in order to create a stronger local economy.
We must stop the forced export of local retirement funds out of our communities to Wall Street. Wall Street has not treated our investment capital well - charging excessive fees, making poor investments, exacerbating volatility for their own profit and paying themselves absurd salaries and bonuses.
Looking at index moving averages
SP 500
EFA
QQQQ
Russell 2000
Emerging Markets
In my opinion, we are going to test the 200 day moving average at a minimum. If President Obama makes a significant pivot to the middle like President Clinton it will only be a test of the 200 day moving average. If his administration stays the course, we could have only hoped for a test, because it will be much worse.
So what about China?
Well, FXI is down 18 percent in the past three months from its post crash high. My eyes are open, but I am looking to buy it, not sell it.
President Obama gets early start on prediction #10
Here is prediction #10.
Congress will be put in a position it must make real decisions with immediate consequences regarding spending, borrowing and the realization of trillions of dollars of losses at the Fed and Treasury. It will be their action that creates the double dip in the economy and the slope of the following recovery.
You cannot say that a double dip has started, but more "banking" type announcements from Mr. Obama, will nearly guarantee its arrival.
A look at equity index performance through time
One year
Three Years
Five Years
and Ten Years
Asset allocation matters!